A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
