Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator
Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.
Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.
Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working
Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Courses considered in the documents were:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers
It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Long-Term Strategy Recommended
Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".
Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.
